- Sanctions; is a way of stimulate to behavior change. Mostly associated with negative sanctions and compellence (to change behavior).
- Uses; Aid, access to markets, access to institutions, preferred trade partners, tariffs, reputation. Many of these are positive sanctions that assist the receiver.
- Around 30% of sanctions work, but hard to determine which type works.
- Sanctions can be used to send a message to the receiver, to the senders populations/pol internal gain.
- Sanctions post 89’ less success; there might be more option to get out (no bipolar strait-jacket)
- Sanctions back-fire, will it increase the support for a bad regime, terror if it turns the population against you?
- Reason for sanction is to punish, deter or rehabilitate (or a combination of these)
- Sanctions can have strong humanitarian cost for the receiver. The leadership might live like kings while the population starves. Smart sanctions can possibly tgt the right part of the leadership, rather than the population
- Sections at work;
- Seek modest pol chg (not threaten the gov) 50 % success
- Regime chg, 30 % succes
- Disrupting mil activity, 30 % succes
- Diminish mil capacity, 30% success
- Sender is generally 10 x bigger GDP than receiver
- Finance hit harder than trade, since it is harder to substitute finance
- Sanctions leak
- Be aware that sanctions can be regarded as amorally
- Smart sanctions can possibly tgt the right part of the leadership, rather than the population
- General rules; Do expect too much, hard to get adversaries to comply, Slam the hammer/ no gradual tightening, use the right tool, do not worry that it also impact the sender.